Psychology How to Prevent Illusory Correlation From Influencing Our Decisions By Arlin Cuncic, MA Arlin Cuncic, MA Arlin Cuncic, MA, is the author of The Anxiety Workbook and founder of the website About Social Anxiety. She has a Master's degree in clinical psychology. Learn about our editorial process Published on May 30, 2023 Learn more." tabindex="0" data-inline-tooltip="true"> Medically reviewed Verywell Mind articles are reviewed by board-certified physicians and mental healthcare professionals. Medical Reviewers confirm the content is thorough and accurate, reflecting the latest evidence-based research. Content is reviewed before publication and upon substantial updates. Learn more. by Daniel B. Block, MD Medically reviewed by Daniel B. Block, MD Daniel B. Block, MD, is an award-winning, board-certified psychiatrist who operates a private practice in Pennsylvania. Learn about our Medical Review Board Print Israel Sebastian / Getty Images Table of Contents View All Table of Contents Why and How Does Illusory Correlation Occur? Factors Influencing Illusory Correlation What Are the Consequences of Illusory Correlation? How to Reduce Illusory Correlation Trending Videos Close this video player Illusory correlation is defined as a cognitive bias in which an individual’s perception of the relationship between two variables is distorted, creating a false connection. Examples of illusory correlation in everyday life include the belief that certain groups of individuals are more prone to violence, or that a certain lifestyle causes certain diseases. This phenomenon can have serious implications for decision-making and lead to incorrect assumptions about cause and effect. To prevent illusory correlation from influencing our decisions, it is important to be aware of how this bias works and take steps to reduce its impact. Why and How Does Illusory Correlation Occur? Causes and mechanisms of illusory correlation include cognitive biases, overemphasis on uncommon events, and mental shortcuts. Cognitive Biases Cognitive biases that contribute to illusory correlation include confirmation bias and the availability heuristic. Confirmation bias is when we pay more attention to evidence that confirms our pre-existing beliefs while ignoring or downplaying evidence that contradicts them. The availability heuristic occurs when people overestimate the probability of an event occurring simply because it is easier to remember. Overemphasis on Uncommon Events Rare occurrences or distinctive traits can lead to an overemphasis on their association, reinforcing the illusory correlation. For instance, if a person notices two instances of a headache occurring after eating a certain food, the person might associate this behavior with that food. Even though this could be an isolated incident, it is more likely to stand out in the person's memory and lead to false conclusions about cause and effect. This phenomenon can also lead to overgeneralization and stereotyping of certain groups of people. Mental Shortcuts Our brains often rely on heuristics, such as pattern recognition and simplification, which can inadvertently create illusory correlations. When presented with too much information or data, people tend to take shortcuts by creating correlations based on very little evidence. This can lead to inaccurate conclusions about the relationship between two variables that do not actually exist. Factors Influencing Illusory Correlation Factors influencing illusory correlation include context and expectations, stereotypes and biases, and media influence. Context and Expectations Preconceived notions and expectations can influence the perception of correlation between unrelated events or traits. For example, if a person is expecting two events to be related, this expectation can bias their interpretation of the situation and lead to false conclusions. Similarly, context can also influence how one perceives the relationship between variables, such as when someone’s preconceived notions about certain groups of people shape their understanding of those people. Stereotypes and Biases Existing stereotypes and biases can amplify the tendency to perceive illusory correlations, leading to prejudice and discrimination. For example, if an individual has a negative opinion of certain racial or ethnic groups, they may be more likely to believe that criminality is more common among those groups even when evidence does not support this. How People's Prejudices Develop Media Influence Media has a role in shaping illusory correlations through selective reporting, sensationalism, and the portrayal of false connections. For example, the media may focus on certain crimes committed by individuals of a certain race or ethnicity, leading to the false conclusion that crime is more prevalent in these groups. What Are the Consequences of Illusory Correlation? Consequences of illusory correlation include prejudice and discrimination, false beliefs, and decision-making errors. Prejudice and Discrimination Illusory correlation contributes to the formation and reinforcement of stereotypes, leading to prejudice and discriminatory behaviors. This can manifest in a variety of forms, including discrimination in employment and housing, disparities in criminal justice outcomes, and biased healthcare practices. False Beliefs Illusory correlation can lead to the development and perpetuation of false beliefs, misinformation, and conspiracy theories. People tend to form connections between events that are not necessarily related and may even invent causal relationships where none exist. This can lead to disproportionately strong negative reactions or fear of certain individuals, groups, and situations that are not based in reality. Decision-Making Errors Illusory correlation can impact decision-making processes, as it can lead to biases in various domains, including healthcare, criminal justice, and personal relationships. People may make decisions based on erroneous assumptions and false connections, which can lead to inaccurate judgments and poor outcomes. How to Reduce Illusory Correlation Illusory correlation can be reduced through critical thinking skills, seeking diverse perspectives, and empirical evidence. Critical Thinking Skills Cultivating critical thinking skills, including skepticism, evaluating evidence, and considering alternative explanations is an effective way to reduce the influence of illusory correlation. People should be aware of how preconceived notions and existing biases can shape their perception, and strive to make decisions based on facts rather than false connections. Seeking Diverse Perspectives Seeking diverse perspectives and challenging our own assumptions is critical to counteract the influence of illusory correlation. Inviting dissenting opinions and seeking alternate interpretations can also help to identify false assumptions and erroneous conclusions. Empirical Evidence Relying on empirical evidence, scientific research, and data to form accurate judgments and beliefs is the best way to counteract illusory correlation. Gathering data and researching trends can help to identify actual patterns of relationships between events or traits, rather than perceived correlations. Additionally, avoiding stereotypes and unfounded assumptions can help to reduce the influence of illusory correlation. Summary In summary, illusory correlation refers to the tendency for people to perceive a relationship between two unrelated events or traits due to existing biases or expectations.This phenomenon can lead to prejudice and discrimination, false beliefs, as well as decision-making errors. To reduce its effects, critical thinking skills should be honed; diverse perspectives should be sought; and empirical evidence should be relied upon. With these steps, it is possible to prevent illusory correlations from influencing our decisions. 10 Cognitive Distortions That Can Cause Negative Thinking 7 Sources Verywell Mind uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read our editorial process to learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy. Rollwage M, Loosen A, Hauser TU, Moran R, Dolan RJ, Fleming SM. Confidence drives a neural confirmation bias. 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